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«Черный понедельник»

  • 25 Августа 2015 г. в 11:32
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Последний раз рубль так падал в кризис 1998 года. Как сейчас это отразится на нас?





Понедельник, 24 августа, мировые СМИ уже окрестили черным. На китайских фондовых биржах обвал. Нефть резко подешевела - до 44 долларов за баррель. Курс рубля официально обновил минимум 1998 года. Все это происходит при кажущемся (а порой и реальном) бездействии наших финансовых властей. Так стоит паниковать или пока рано?

Из-за чего дешевеет наша валюта?

Рубль плавно терял в цене с конца июня. Его пике только набирало обороты: в последние 10 дней потери к доллару составляли 12,8%. Так что говорить об обвале рубля в какой-то определенный день было бы некорректно. Происходящее - следствие многих событий, случившихся в разное время, замечают эксперты. Например, в минувший понедельник толчком к новым антирекордам рубля послужила паника на китайском рынке акций, пишет "КП".

Дело в том, что на прошлой неделе китайский фондовый рынок просел на 11%. В начале нынешней недели биржевые игроки ждали каких-нибудь действий местного ЦБ - но не дождались. В итоге индекс Шанхайской биржи обрушился на 8,5%. Вслед за ним посыпались другие рынки страны, а потом и всего Азиатского региона.

Картина дня в Поднебесной показала, что состояние ее экономики куда хуже, чем предполагалось. И для рынка нефти это больше чем плохие новости. На долю Китая приходится потребление около 11% добываемого в мире «черного золота». Если страна перестанет быть крупнейшим покупателем, что делать с огромными запасами нефти? Спрос на нее и так не слишком велик.

Вниз вслед за китайскими акциями поползли цены на сырье. Баррель опустился ниже 44 долларов. Впервые за 7 лет. Рубль, который ориентируется исключительно на нефтяные котировки, не мог не отреагировать. В итоге официальные курсы подскочили сразу на несколько рублей.

- Нынешнее падение рубля - часть общемирового движения, - объясняет аналитик Газпромбанка Егор Сусин. - Инвесторы бегут из рискованных валют, к числу которых относят и нашу. И хотя риски для цены на нефть сохраняются, реакция рубля явно несоразмерна их падению. Это очередное доказательство, что валютный рынок слишком эмоционален.

Что дальше?

Очевидно, что перспективы рубля будут зависеть от цены на нефть. Но предсказать ее становится все сложнее. Министр экономического развития России Алексей Улюкаев допустил, что цена может опуститься ниже планки в 40 долларов за баррель. Но на очень короткое время. Коридор, который определило Минэкономразвития в начале года, - 50 - 60 долларов за бочку. Эксперты тоже пророчат «черному золоту» небольшой рост. Поскольку нынешний уровень цен становится невыгодным для производителей.

- Краткосрочная коррекция по рублю, безусловно, будет происходить в ближайшее время, - уверен Андрей Кочетков, аналитик «Открытие Брокер». - Нынешняя ситуация во многом обусловлена паникой и происками спекулянтов. Сейчас идет девятая неделя падения развивающихся рынков. Индонезийская и индийская рупии, бразильский реал и другие валюты находятся в той же ситуации, что и рубль. Это финальная стадия паники: как правило, такие периоды длятся 10 - 11 недель. Как поведет себя наш Центробанк, неизвестно. На мой взгляд, финансовым чиновникам стоило бы начать с «вербальных интервенций» - предостеречь население от бездумной скупки валюты.

На прошлой неделе Центробанк предупреждал, что не располагает финансами для прямой помощи рублю. Золотовалютных резервов на это больше не предусмотрено. Единственным инструментом в руках ЦБ осталась ключевая ставка (от нее зависит стоимость кредитов для бизнеса в России, чем она выше - тем сложнее экономике развиваться, зато утихает валютная паника). Но повышать ставку - по сути означает застопорить работу предприятий в стране и разгонять рост цен. Власти вряд ли пойдут на это.

Рост цен неминуем?

Столь резкое падение курса рубля отразится на ценах в магазинах. В первую очередь это коснется импортных продуктов. Но не только импортных. Ведь многие отечественные производители используют заграничное сырье и оборудование. А другие повысят цены «за компанию», как не раз уже бывало.

Первыми о повышении стоимости объявили поставщики иностранного алкоголя. Пообещали взвинтить к осени цены на 25 - 30%.

Также среди продуктов, ценник на которые должен вырасти, эксперты называют рыбу, сахар, молочную продукцию, овощи (ближе к поздней осени). Следующим отреагирует рынок техники и электроники. Трикотаж, одежда, обувь, моющие и чистящие средства будут дорожать медленнее.

ВОПРОС РЕБРОМ

Что будет с ценами?

У нас, россиян, два безусловных рефлекса на кризис. Первый - бежать в обменник. Второй - скупать бытовую технику. Правильно та или иная стратегия или нет, сказать точно нельзя. Зависит от времени покупки и владельцем чего вы в итоге стали. Одно можно сказать со стопроцентной вероятностью. Цены на многие товары будут расти. Доля импорта у нас еще очень высока.

Основные товары, которые мы завозим из-за бугра - это компьютерная и бытовая техника, лекарства, автомобили, продовольствие. Плюс большое количество высокотехнологичного оборудования. На гражданах последнее напрямую не отразится, но косвенно все равно заденет. Закупка техники будет влетать компаниям в копеечку, поэтому они станут перекладывать эти издержки на клиентов.

Так, поставщики импортного алкоголя уже заявили, что собираются поднять расценки на 20 - 30%. Примерно на тот же уровень могут подорожать зарубежные медикаменты. Продавцы бытовой техники и автомобильные дилеры от резких повышений пока далеки. Рост пока планируется на 10 - 15%, но не так быстро. По крайней мере, до середины сентября массовых повышений не ожидается.

- Покупать машины надо именно сейчас, это будет правильным решением, - считает Владимир Моженков, президент Ассоциации “Российские автомобильные дилеры”. - Кроме того, сейчас льготная ставка по автокредитованию составляет 9%. И почти половина автомобилей покупается по этой программе.

И наконец, путевки тоже подорожают. В Ассоциации туроператоров России уже отмечают, что активность клиентов резко снизилась. Все выжидают, чем закончится очередной виток девальвации и на каких значения остановятся курсы.

ТЕМ ВРЕМЕНЕМ

В столичных обменниках - затишье

Вчера днем появились сообщения, что якобы в центре Москвы выстраиваются очереди из желающих прикупить стремительное дорожающие евро и доллары. А в некоторых обменниках, мол, даже кончилась валюта.

Корреспонденты «КП» заглянули в несколько обменных пунктов возле редакции - и везде ситуация была примерно одинаковой: кассир скучает, долларов и евро - сколько хочешь, столько и покупай. И ни одного клиента!

- Да кто ж по такому курсу будет валюту брать! - сказала оперцаионист одного из крупных российских банков. - Сегодня практически никто ничего не покупал и не продавал. Все, что я делала - несколько раз меняла на табло значение доллара и евро к рублю.

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