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«Черный понедельник»

  • 25 Августа 2015 г. в 11:32
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Последний раз рубль так падал в кризис 1998 года. Как сейчас это отразится на нас?





Понедельник, 24 августа, мировые СМИ уже окрестили черным. На китайских фондовых биржах обвал. Нефть резко подешевела - до 44 долларов за баррель. Курс рубля официально обновил минимум 1998 года. Все это происходит при кажущемся (а порой и реальном) бездействии наших финансовых властей. Так стоит паниковать или пока рано?

Из-за чего дешевеет наша валюта?

Рубль плавно терял в цене с конца июня. Его пике только набирало обороты: в последние 10 дней потери к доллару составляли 12,8%. Так что говорить об обвале рубля в какой-то определенный день было бы некорректно. Происходящее - следствие многих событий, случившихся в разное время, замечают эксперты. Например, в минувший понедельник толчком к новым антирекордам рубля послужила паника на китайском рынке акций, пишет "КП".

Дело в том, что на прошлой неделе китайский фондовый рынок просел на 11%. В начале нынешней недели биржевые игроки ждали каких-нибудь действий местного ЦБ - но не дождались. В итоге индекс Шанхайской биржи обрушился на 8,5%. Вслед за ним посыпались другие рынки страны, а потом и всего Азиатского региона.

Картина дня в Поднебесной показала, что состояние ее экономики куда хуже, чем предполагалось. И для рынка нефти это больше чем плохие новости. На долю Китая приходится потребление около 11% добываемого в мире «черного золота». Если страна перестанет быть крупнейшим покупателем, что делать с огромными запасами нефти? Спрос на нее и так не слишком велик.

Вниз вслед за китайскими акциями поползли цены на сырье. Баррель опустился ниже 44 долларов. Впервые за 7 лет. Рубль, который ориентируется исключительно на нефтяные котировки, не мог не отреагировать. В итоге официальные курсы подскочили сразу на несколько рублей.

- Нынешнее падение рубля - часть общемирового движения, - объясняет аналитик Газпромбанка Егор Сусин. - Инвесторы бегут из рискованных валют, к числу которых относят и нашу. И хотя риски для цены на нефть сохраняются, реакция рубля явно несоразмерна их падению. Это очередное доказательство, что валютный рынок слишком эмоционален.

Что дальше?

Очевидно, что перспективы рубля будут зависеть от цены на нефть. Но предсказать ее становится все сложнее. Министр экономического развития России Алексей Улюкаев допустил, что цена может опуститься ниже планки в 40 долларов за баррель. Но на очень короткое время. Коридор, который определило Минэкономразвития в начале года, - 50 - 60 долларов за бочку. Эксперты тоже пророчат «черному золоту» небольшой рост. Поскольку нынешний уровень цен становится невыгодным для производителей.

- Краткосрочная коррекция по рублю, безусловно, будет происходить в ближайшее время, - уверен Андрей Кочетков, аналитик «Открытие Брокер». - Нынешняя ситуация во многом обусловлена паникой и происками спекулянтов. Сейчас идет девятая неделя падения развивающихся рынков. Индонезийская и индийская рупии, бразильский реал и другие валюты находятся в той же ситуации, что и рубль. Это финальная стадия паники: как правило, такие периоды длятся 10 - 11 недель. Как поведет себя наш Центробанк, неизвестно. На мой взгляд, финансовым чиновникам стоило бы начать с «вербальных интервенций» - предостеречь население от бездумной скупки валюты.

На прошлой неделе Центробанк предупреждал, что не располагает финансами для прямой помощи рублю. Золотовалютных резервов на это больше не предусмотрено. Единственным инструментом в руках ЦБ осталась ключевая ставка (от нее зависит стоимость кредитов для бизнеса в России, чем она выше - тем сложнее экономике развиваться, зато утихает валютная паника). Но повышать ставку - по сути означает застопорить работу предприятий в стране и разгонять рост цен. Власти вряд ли пойдут на это.

Рост цен неминуем?

Столь резкое падение курса рубля отразится на ценах в магазинах. В первую очередь это коснется импортных продуктов. Но не только импортных. Ведь многие отечественные производители используют заграничное сырье и оборудование. А другие повысят цены «за компанию», как не раз уже бывало.

Первыми о повышении стоимости объявили поставщики иностранного алкоголя. Пообещали взвинтить к осени цены на 25 - 30%.

Также среди продуктов, ценник на которые должен вырасти, эксперты называют рыбу, сахар, молочную продукцию, овощи (ближе к поздней осени). Следующим отреагирует рынок техники и электроники. Трикотаж, одежда, обувь, моющие и чистящие средства будут дорожать медленнее.

ВОПРОС РЕБРОМ

Что будет с ценами?

У нас, россиян, два безусловных рефлекса на кризис. Первый - бежать в обменник. Второй - скупать бытовую технику. Правильно та или иная стратегия или нет, сказать точно нельзя. Зависит от времени покупки и владельцем чего вы в итоге стали. Одно можно сказать со стопроцентной вероятностью. Цены на многие товары будут расти. Доля импорта у нас еще очень высока.

Основные товары, которые мы завозим из-за бугра - это компьютерная и бытовая техника, лекарства, автомобили, продовольствие. Плюс большое количество высокотехнологичного оборудования. На гражданах последнее напрямую не отразится, но косвенно все равно заденет. Закупка техники будет влетать компаниям в копеечку, поэтому они станут перекладывать эти издержки на клиентов.

Так, поставщики импортного алкоголя уже заявили, что собираются поднять расценки на 20 - 30%. Примерно на тот же уровень могут подорожать зарубежные медикаменты. Продавцы бытовой техники и автомобильные дилеры от резких повышений пока далеки. Рост пока планируется на 10 - 15%, но не так быстро. По крайней мере, до середины сентября массовых повышений не ожидается.

- Покупать машины надо именно сейчас, это будет правильным решением, - считает Владимир Моженков, президент Ассоциации “Российские автомобильные дилеры”. - Кроме того, сейчас льготная ставка по автокредитованию составляет 9%. И почти половина автомобилей покупается по этой программе.

И наконец, путевки тоже подорожают. В Ассоциации туроператоров России уже отмечают, что активность клиентов резко снизилась. Все выжидают, чем закончится очередной виток девальвации и на каких значения остановятся курсы.

ТЕМ ВРЕМЕНЕМ

В столичных обменниках - затишье

Вчера днем появились сообщения, что якобы в центре Москвы выстраиваются очереди из желающих прикупить стремительное дорожающие евро и доллары. А в некоторых обменниках, мол, даже кончилась валюта.

Корреспонденты «КП» заглянули в несколько обменных пунктов возле редакции - и везде ситуация была примерно одинаковой: кассир скучает, долларов и евро - сколько хочешь, столько и покупай. И ни одного клиента!

- Да кто ж по такому курсу будет валюту брать! - сказала оперцаионист одного из крупных российских банков. - Сегодня практически никто ничего не покупал и не продавал. Все, что я делала - несколько раз меняла на табло значение доллара и евро к рублю.

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25.08.2015 13:47
Гость
Как не верти , а отразится плохо , очень плохо. Цены поскачут неимоверно , уровень жизни снизится процентов на 40 , бизнес упадёт , часть вообще закроется.. Одна надежда на Северную Корею... Если она долбану со всех стволов по Южной , а там втянуться союзники со всех сторон , и получиться серьёзная региональная война , то есть шанс оздоровить экономику и не только России.
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25.08.2015 14:23
Гость
Гость: Как не верти , а отразится плохо , очень плохо. Цены поскачут неимоверно , уровень жизни снизится процентов на 40 , бизнес упадёт , часть вообще закроется.. Одна надежда на Северную Корею... Если она долбану со всех стволов по Южной , а там втянуться союзники со всех сторон , и получиться серьёзная региональная война , то есть шанс оздоровить экономику и не только России.
Главное чтобы доплаты к пенсиям высоких чиновников-пенсионеров Бурятии из регионального бюджета не отменили. Эти люди - золотой фонд Бурятии. Потапов и прочие выдающиеся пенсионные личности. Наши современники. Гордитесь, что живете в одно время с ними!
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25.08.2015 15:13
Гость
Главное чтобы доплаты к пенсиям высоких чиновников-пенсионеров Бурятии из регионального бюджета не отменили. Эти люди - золотой фонд Бурятии. Потапов и прочие выдающиеся пенсионные личности. Наши современники. Гордитесь, что живете в одно время с ними!
Мы не только гордимся , но и готовы в случае войны отправить их всех , как старых верных коммунистов в Северную Корею политработниками в действующие войска...
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25.08.2015 16:14
Гость
Гость:
Главное чтобы доплаты к пенсиям высоких чиновников-пенсионеров Бурятии из регионального бюджета не отменили. Эти люди - золотой фонд Бурятии. Потапов и прочие выдающиеся пенсионные личности. Наши современники. Гордитесь, что живете в одно время с ними!
Мы не только гордимся , но и готовы в случае войны отправить их всех , как старых верных коммунистов в Северную Корею политработниками в действующие войска...
Во главе с вождем!
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25.08.2015 16:15
Гость
Гость:
Гость:
Главное чтобы доплаты к пенсиям высоких чиновников-пенсионеров Бурятии из регионального бюджета не отменили. Эти люди - золотой фонд Бурятии. Потапов и прочие выдающиеся пенсионные личности. Наши современники. Гордитесь, что живете в одно время с ними!
Мы не только гордимся , но и готовы в случае войны отправить их всех , как старых верных коммунистов в Северную Корею политработниками в действующие войска...
Во главе с вождем!
ахаха))
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25.08.2015 16:16
Гость
Коммунистов тоже стоит отправить, всех, с вождем.
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25.08.2015 20:41
Гость
Гость:
Гость:
Гость:
Главное чтобы доплаты к пенсиям высоких чиновников-пенсионеров Бурятии из регионального бюджета не отменили. Эти люди - золотой фонд Бурятии. Потапов и прочие выдающиеся пенсионные личности. Наши современники. Гордитесь, что живете в одно время с ними!
Мы не только гордимся , но и готовы в случае войны отправить их всех , как старых верных коммунистов в Северную Корею политработниками в действующие войска...
Во главе с вождем!
и
Гость:
Гость:
Гость:
Главное чтобы доплаты к пенсиям высоких чиновников-пенсионеров Бурятии из регионального бюджета не отменили. Эти люди - золотой фонд Бурятии. Потапов и прочие выдающиеся пенсионные личности. Наши современники. Гордитесь, что живете в одно время с ними!
Мы не только гордимся , но и готовы в случае войны отправить их всех , как старых верных коммунистов в Северную Корею политработниками в действующие войска...
Во главе с вождем!
ахаха))
И будет кирдык корейскому полуострову без войны
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25.08.2015 21:35
Гость
Нефть скоро будет 25 баксов за баррель, а доллар 100 руб., горькая но правда. И куда бедному крестьянину.
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25.08.2015 21:46
Гость
Почему только Потапов? Больше него получают пенсию бывшие спикеры Сергей Булдаев, Михаил Семенов, Александр Лубсанов, Гершевич. Теперь будет получать Владимир Павлов. А также будут получать Наг, Чепик, Думнова, Галков, Носков, Зубарев, Башкирцев и прочие.
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26.08.2015 00:43
fh346erfj
Самый лёгкий способ бросить курить! Я бросил всего за 2 дня и в корне изменил свою жизнь, теперь хочу посоветовать всем. Узнал о этом способе из блога - http://ofnosov.blogspot.com
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26.08.2015 10:26
Гость
Банальное рассуждение на финансовую тему филолога с соответсвующей профанацией и талантом попугая которому лишь бы каркнуть а что не важно.
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26.08.2015 11:52
Гость
Гость: Банальное рассуждение на финансовую тему филолога с соответсвующей профанацией и талантом попугая которому лишь бы каркнуть а что не важно.
сам ты попугай. Автор просто и понятно пересказал рассуждения аналитиков. А они, хоть и шибко умными себя считают, чаще всего со своими прогнозами пальцем в небо попадают. Но если суммировать всю их ахинею, за которую они бабло гребут из разных кормушек, получается, что все проблемы придется решать все равно народу. Мы ответим своим уровнем жизни за падение цен на нефть, за то, что экономику наши правители угробили, за то, что со всем миром пере@рались, и за то, что Крым наш (на кой он нам сдался?).
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21.09.2016 13:20
Гость
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21.09.2016 13:20
Гость
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The unit is really as close in order to real-time as possible get having a speedy revise of problems every two. 5 mere seconds. www.vantage-travel.net Having went onward as well as through among a number of tunnels like hell, we commemorate the memory from the thought: as soon as I had been there, however for now, forget about. There is actually one feeling we really feel; presented generously like a virtue... (This short article highlights seven causes of thankfulness as well as gratitude). www.hellastravel.net The European visitor travel indicates visiting Birmingham, Paris as well as Amsterdam. They are, of program, the 3 most frequented travel spots from the world since you get a great opportunity to combine business along with pleasure. Ancient rome has a few special importance beyond company and enjoyment. www.mytravelspot.org The the majority of out-of-body experience that you could have about this planet throughout lifetime. 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Many from the early settlers had been liberal oriented Germans have been fleeing following the Revolution associated with 1848 with them these people brought Aged World preferences and traditions that certain can appreciate by tugging into city. www.texashillcountrytravel.net Tips, methods and 2013 improvements for vacationing the Baja Peninsula through car, RECREATIONAL VEHICLE or motorbike; Updated details about Baja security and generating. Travel through Tijuana in order to Cabo San Lucas properly by vehicle. Experience the wonder of generating Baja Ca. www.bajatraveler.net One from the good reasons for being students is getting the flexibility to visit. Numerous college students make probably the most of their own college or even school breaks to complete some college student travel. Though a few will attempt road outings, others may head over the border or even travel abroad. www.studenttravelog.net If you're an old traveler, there isn't any reason to visit uninsured! This short article covers the fundamentals of what senior travel insurance coverage is, why it may be more difficult to acquire the coverage that you'll require, and wh ere one can turn to obtain coverage. www.worldcitizentraveler.org The particular story regarding Adam and also Eve sent as a result of earth coming from heaven swiftly raises problem about their health and survival. How would two different people -- who had previously been living inside luxury through their lifestyles -- fare inside the wilderness -- without the food or perhaps supply -- not proper garments? The chance for their survival is practically zero. healthfoodheaven.net Just about the most challenging activities for the newest Year is always to rapidly modify one's life-style. Most folks resolve to adopt better attention of themselves on the turn of your new yr. 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24.03.2017 15:50
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" The particular Kelly Yang venture in Hong Kong delivers American imagination and essential reasoning inside the mix together with writing plus a love regarding children. educationalnews People coming from all taking walks of living are approved in this type of educational create, provided they will pass every one of the requirements and meet the standards. The best part is that there are tons of reliable distance schooling universities online for instance Kaplan, DeVry, AIU and others. educationcafe The variety of investment golf clubs is rising, but there exists a secret to be able to keeping any club still living and prosperous with the current economic market. It really is no more time enough to be able to just swimming money. 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04.05.2017 16:55
FinestCarpet
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