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«Исламское государство» может появиться в Сибири

  • 22 Июля 2015 г. в 23:51
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Александру III принадлежит известный афоризм: «У России есть только два союзника — армия и флот». Однако в нашем сложном мире сражаться в одиночку против всех весьма опрометчиво

Опасность простых решений для России: в плену у союзников

Александру III принадлежит известный афоризм: «У России есть только два союзника — армия и флот». Однако в нашем сложном мире сражаться в одиночку против всех весьма опрометчиво. Совершенно иной смысл слова императора приобретают, если дополнить их мыслью лорда Палмерстона: «У нас нет ни вечных союзников, ни постоянных врагов, но постоянны и вечны наши интересы, и защищать их — наш долг». Сегодня этот принцип подходит и для нашего Отечества. Особенно когда большая часть государств планеты следуют еще одному известному высказыванию англосакса Палмерстона: «Как тяжело жить, когда с Россией никто не воюет».

Каждый день российские СМИ рассказывают об успехах иракских сил в Тикрите — родном городе С. Хусейна, который они очищают от подразделений ИГИЛ. Как правило, большая часть сообщений выдержана в духе победных реляций. Такая подача вполне понятна. Из 30 тыс. человек, занятых в войсковой операции, на созданную американцами иракскую армию приходится максимум 8-10 тыс. Остальные — это в основном шиитская милиция, созданная, натренированная, вооруженная и возглавляемая офицерами Корпуса стражей Исламской революции — «Аль-Кудс». Получается нетривиальный микст, состоящий из подразделений, за которыми стоят ожесточенные на сегодняшний день противники — иранцы и американцы. К тому же американцы осуществляют разведывательную и огневую воздушную поддержку штурмующих Тикрит сил иракской армии и шиитской милиции — Басидж.

Логика большинства российских СМИ и аналитиков понятна: Иран — союзник Сирии, а Сирия — союзник России, соответственно, там, где участвуют иранцы, мы должны поддерживать именно их сторону. Однако линейная логика плохо подходит для принятия сложных решений в нынешнем динамичном, турбулентном мире. Пора России руководствоваться не делением на «своих и чужих» или «плохих и хороших», а исходить из того, насколько опасна та или иная сила, или насколько можно ее использовать в собственных интересах. А вот здесь с ИГИЛ, их противниками, союзниками и т.п. все не так просто, как это может показаться на первый взгляд.

Начнем с Вашингтона. С прошлой недели в его коридорах власти циркулирует необычный, никем не подписанный документ — «Белые Бумаги. „Исламское государство“ в Сибири. Фантастика или вероятность» (White Paper. Islamic State in Siberia. Fiction or Probability). По стилю документа можно предположить, что к нему имеет отношение исследовательская структура, связанная с американским разведывательным сообществом, — The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), и, возможно, эксперты ключевого «думающего танка» демократов Brookings Institution. В резюме документа содержится три главных вывода. Первый — на севере России — в Ямало-Ненецком, Ханты-Мансийском автономном округах, и прежде всего в Новом Уренгое, Ноябрьске, Нижневартовске, в некоторых городах Якутии, постепенно складывается критическая масса для формирования активных действующих ячеек ИГИЛ.

Потенциальными рекрутами для ИГИЛ в этих регионах является не только молодежь из южных, преимущественно мусульманских районов РФ, массово прибывающая в богатые нефтегазовые и золотодобывающие регионы, но и местное молодое русскоязычное население. Второй — по организационным, технологическим, финансовым, логистическим и медийным возможностям эти регионы благоприятны для использования хорошо отработанных технологий, присущих именно ИГИЛ. Его уже давно не смущают географические расстояния. Важна лишь перспективность региона и наличие в нем необходимого потенциала.
Третий вывод доклада состоит в том, что, если ИГИЛ столкнется с серьезными препятствиями в экспансии на Ближнем и Среднем Востоке, оно с высокой степенью вероятности начнет искать новые, удаленные и труднодоступные для своих врагов регионы, включая постсоветские среднеазиатские страны и российский северо-восток. В Белых Бумагах не содержится каких-либо прямых рекомендаций, но из логики документа следует: ИГИЛ отправится в Сибирь, если его подтолкнуть к подобным действиям. Сделать это проще всего, если уже сегодня постараться вовлечь Россию в прямое финансово-организационное или даже военное противостояние с ИГИЛ, прежде всего, на Ближнем Востоке.

Проанализируем события последних дней, связанные с ИГИЛ, которым почти не уделялось внимания российскими СМИ. Крупнейшая террористическая группировка южного полушария — «Боко Харам» (БХ) в Нигерии — устами своего лидера Абу Бакр Шекау присягнула на верность халифу ИГИЛ Абу Бакр аль Багдади. БХ насчитывает примерно 30 тыс. боевиков, террористов и обеспечивающего их персонала. ИГИЛ имеет определенную поддержку в нигерийской армии и среди среднего руководящего и технического персонала нефтяных компаний. Этот персонал в основном составляют выходцы из стран Ближнего Востока. БХ имеет устойчивые и эффективные связи с нигерийскими преступными синдикатами, которые занимают серьезные позиции не только в Африке, но и в мире, в сферах незаконных финансовых операций, работорговле, поставок человеческих имплантатов и т.п. БХ удалось не только заметно затруднить логистику нефти из Нигерии, нападая на танкеры и т.п., но и в немалой степени парализовать морские пассажирские и грузовые перевозки.
Значение присоединения БХ к ИГИЛ далеко выходит за пределы Африки. В феврале по поводу условий присоединения проходили переговоры между руководителями ИГИЛ и БХ. По сведениям всегда хорошо осведомленного ресурса DEBKAFile, тесно связанного с МОССАД и Армией обороны Израиля, в переговорах участвовали «Аль-Каида Аравийского полуострова» (AQAP) и «Аль-Каида Исламского Магриба» (AQIM). Участие AQAP и AQIM было обусловлено тем, что именно они с согласия центрального руководства «Аль-Каиды» ранее осуществляли логистическую, финансовую и военную поддержку БХ. По итогам трехсторонних переговоров AQAP и AQIM не только дали согласие на переход контроля над БХ к ИГИЛ, но и фактически согласились стать его союзниками, пойдя ради этого на прямую конфронтацию с центральным руководством «Аль-Каиды».

В заключение приступим к главной теме, имеющей прямое отношение к России. До последнего времени эксперты строили различного рода предположения, что именно стало главным аргументом для перехода AQAP и AQIM в союзников, а в будущем, возможно, и в подданных ИГИЛ. Документированной версии, объясняющей этот крутой поворот, выдвинуто так и не было. В минувшую пятницу крупные нефтяные инвесторы и спекулянты получили еженедельную рассылку, посвященную ситуации в Йемене, от Дана Дикера. В его докладе от 13 марта подчеркивается, что AQAP полностью разочаровалась в саудовцах, катарцах и центральном руководстве «Аль-Каиды», поскольку они не смогли ей оказать помощь в борьбе с шиитским движением Хути, поддерживаемым Ираном.

Не так давно Хути овладели столицей и значительной частью северных районов страны. Сегодня они готовятся к наступлению на основную нефтеносную провинцию Йемена — Мариб. Пока она находится под контролем AQAP. В докладе указывается, что движение Хути в настоящее время напрямую и при посредстве иранцев пытается войти в контакт с российскими нефтяными компаниями с тем, чтобы уговорить их взять на себя восстановление, а в последующем эксплуатацию нефтяных месторождений в Марибе. Понятно, Хути и поддерживающие их силы действуют в собственных интересах. Им нужны независимые нефтедобытчики и экспортеры из стран, не подпадающих под иранское эмбарго.

Однако давно документально установлено, что враги нашей страны в совершенстве овладели методами рефлексивного управления. Они научились даже противников превращать в инструменты достижения собственных целей. Одна из наиболее важных текущих и перспективных их целей — втянуть Россию в кровопролитный долговременный и тяжелый конфликт на Аравийском полуострове или другом субрегионе Ближнего и Среднего Востока и в прямую конфронтацию с ИГИЛ. Соответственно, Москве надо очень выверенно действовать в этом регионе, не поддаваясь на соблазны простых, но опасных шагов.


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Garage beneath the <a href=http://www.stephencurryshoes.com>stephen curry shoes</a> second dribbling is toward the start up the left side from the body without any slowdown, the footsteps choiceness and fast, soon arrived at the position you wish to go. Unlike most pitcher like center of gravity down, then struggled to jump to complete, the garage action additional concise. Don't waste any hard work, just jump off the soil, slightly triggered his filming action instantly. "He is not only essentially the most pure great scorer, he even gave shot two words for making the definition, the full shooting art played some sort of revolutionary role. "The bobcats go scout work Adam : Mr Libby said Treasury. Kitchen counter frames in 6 minutes and 31 seconds, garage from his breasts slightly next point position organized the ball, the index finger as well as middle finger instinct to locate gaps in the rubberized ball center. His wrist gently lifted back, still left his palm the soccer ball, but still control in between his fingers. His right arm into each of the joints is close to 90 degree Angle, from the shoulder to the shoulder, from the elbow to the wrist, from wrist to reference, as if a eating place waiter in carrying a tray. Glen Davis clippers, 289 - pound ahead, <a href=http://www.curry-shoes.com>curry shoes</a> need to speed up their action inside the Treasury, since the childhood to lay an excellent foundation for complete to garage in a state, the right arm and shooting can keep perfect posture and strength. And in addition to master hand movements, garage includes a precise shot needed one more factor: enough deep muscle memory. Shooting touch seriously isn't a proper adjective, a single player, able to throw a fantastic shooting there is although one secret to all - year after year, year after year exercise, until a set of complex dynamic chain implanted into parts of your muscles. Garage never resist including monks meditate boring exercise, it also helped while he graduated from high school graduation, eventually grow into another leading little-known Davidson school NCAA elite last 8. "Game changing, there is no time to <a href=http://www.kdshoes.us.com>kevin durant shoes</a> you consider your own shooting steps is correct, " curry stated, "you can only depend on their daily at the courses ground building muscle memory space, hit and believe that we can. We're so a lot of practice in training, to be able to the game, you can depend upon instinct to react. But if it is not correctly, the game will really feel very strange. ". Tag: <a href=http://www.kyrieirvingshoes.net>kyrie irving shoes</a> <a href=http://www.lebronshoes.us>lebron shoes</a> <a href=http://www.nikerosherun.us.com>nike roshe run two</a> <a href=http://www.bapehoodie.com>bape hoodie</a> <a href=http://www.adidasterrex.us>adidas terrex</a> <a href=http://www.lebron-james-jersey.com>lebron james jersey</a> <a href=http://www.kyrie3shoes.com>kyrie shoes 3</a> <a href=http://www.nikeairmoreuptemposupreme.com>nike air more uptempo x supreme</a> <a href=http://www.balenciagashoes.us>balenciaga shoes</a> <a href=http://www.nikeairforce1high.com>nike air force 1 high</a> <a href=http://www.lebron-14.com>lebron 14</a> <a href=http://www.nikefree.us.com>nike free</a> <a href=http://www.curry-2.com>curry 2</a> <a href=http://www.ultraboostadidas.us.com>adidas ultra boost uncaged</a> <a href=http://www.pumafentyslides.com>puma fenty slides</a> <a href=http://www.reebokpumpfury.com>reebok pump superme</a> <a href=http://www.hand-spinner.us>hand spinner</a> <a href=http://www.asicsgelkayano23.com>asics gel kayano 23</a> <a href=http://www.nikevapormax.us.com>nike air vapormax</a>
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25.10.2017 20:04
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A pair of steals in his System, stephen curry shoes in the first one fourth, and the two steals to garage an overall of 106 times inside the playoffs career steals, which in turn transcends the rick Barry, became the steals from the history of the warriors team in the playoffs. Garage into seven three-pointers inside the game, this also let the playoff three-pointers hit number approximately 261, match the Robert horry, 9th three points in playoff record list. Distance comes 9th Chauncey billups, he additionally only six three points. 37 points in merely three games, came curry shoes someone's, and this is his this year, including playoffs) 9th score 35 + online game with three alone, over 7 times of Russell westbrook, the top league. So many record the 1st world war, there is no doubt the game can be considered to be the garage in this series played the very best game. The first three games, garage is averaging 28. 3 points and 4. 7 rebounds, 6 aids, shooting 40. 3% and 35. 3% from about three, compared with the typical season shooting stage, a certain degree of decline, however the game, garage completely insane. The blazers in many players to hound him or her, but no one could disturb his rhythm. Car port, as it were, in the game again to find out "day day" feeling. 11 three-point brand out hand, hit kevin durant shoes more effective goals, including vast miles of three points. Wearing warriors baseball hat sitting within the stands to watch the old garage, it also appears to obtain son's playing god look like some incredible performance. The lens for the old garage, he cannot help but shook his / her head. Of course, whatever other people think, garage three points for own performance with overall confidence. In the 3 rd quarter the warriors using 88-58 big lead the actual blazers, garage outside the particular three-point line again, the ball clear of the one hand, he or she turned back field, the ball firmly into the basket, the whole uproar. Can put the three points within this state, the other gathering can say what? Tag: kyrie irving shoes kyrie 3 adidas nmd asics gel kayano 23 wholesale nba hats nike free lebron soldier 10 bape hoodie john wall shoes hand spinner stephen curry shoes puma fenty puma suede kobe 10 nike vapormax vans shoes asics gel kayano kyire 3 adidas nmd r2
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26.10.2017 01:17
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Throw three points just isn't the whole garage day-to-day work, and don't overlook, Stephen curry is the actual team in assists and steals, he averaged 6. 7 assists in the regular season, 14 from the league and the playoffs stephen curry shoes is averaging 9. 3 assists for the reason that league the first! Let's imagine a picture, 40 minutes per game from the Treasury, attack launched dozens of times, there are always many ball he wasn't inside the outside, but the ball inside, attracted a two times... What will happen then? There was a man the guy can tell you the reply, curry shoes he called clay -- Thompson, from the golden state warriors, he made in 2010 211 3-pointers, finished third inside the league, and that 211 3-pointers, 68 is derived from the assists of Stephen curry. 12-13 season to contrast the storage area and ray Allen throughout '05 -' 06 -- Allen into 269 3-pointers, and he or she is the Seattle supersonics. That will year, Allen's 269 of 653 three-point shots, picture 41. 2%, as Stephen -- 272 of 600 photos in his Arsenal, as tall as 45. 3%; That calendar year, Alan ball attack build 3 ratio is less than a quarter, compared along with 38. 6% in database; That year, Allen's assists the amount 3. 7, less versus Treasury for three aids. So the outline, the image of an alternative 3-pointers hand along the garage outline: he besides completed the sharpshooter history, his teammates for his creation of free-throw prospects into; He will also look for opportunities concurrently, through the ball development, stopped for no helps 3-pointer of shots. In addition, he also can go assists, "create" another pitcher - clay - Thompson! Not merely can catch vote, will likely urgent stopped, can generate more opportunities to some others, this star, unique! Now i'm kd shoes afraid, just use "striker" two words are unable to define Stephen curry, also need to be in with a new "great" rhetoric. Tag: kyrie irving shoes kobe shoes adidas tubular curry 2 kobe 10 kyrie 4 ultra boost 3.0 nike free adidas pure boost puma rihanna creepers camo adidas nmd r2 kyrie 3 calvin klein adidas yeezy boost 350 v2 zebra adidas nmd shoes puma fenty air jordan 31 yeezy boost 350 v2 kyrie 4
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26.10.2017 10:47
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Storage, 26, is one kevin durant shoes in the largest child, dell - garage in 2002, his dad announced over sixteen years of career, finally paid 40. 2% on threes survey card. Fr om a really young age, Stephen about the shooting learned how to shoot on the feet of the grasp, when dad refused to adopt him to the hornets training, Stephen will be pursed mouth, not because can't visit those big-name players, the old that you are, but because he also wish to be with my dad, to train his shot. At the age of 9, garage is of their own stephen curry shoes amateur league teams of players, only if the coach needs to outside shot collapse for the opponent's zone will possibly be sent. Recalled the one self, garage proudly said: "when When i was a defense gurus, all start from presently there. " To go to curry shoes the original text, when the garage near the golf ball in midfield, people tend to overlook one of the most important thing: pool soccer ball skills. Sonya, thanks to be able to his mother, then the 5 feet tall 3, cordial and some stubborn woman again simultaneously, she was in high school played point guard, turning to the volleyball after in the campus of Virginia tech, and meet the storage there's father. "If I dribble towards the coast, I have to select to shoot or pass, it's my lim it. "Dell claimed, "people started for Stephen impression is all he is able to beautiful posture hit photographs, but before becoming the striker, he already was an improved control player, people often ignore it. After their dribble shot, is I the most beautiful moments. Thanks to his mother. ". Tag: kyrie irving shoes kyrie 4 hand spinner new balance shoes nmd human race ultra boost 4.0 birkenstock shoes john wall shoes yeezy boost 350 v2 adidas yeezy boost 350 v2 zebra adidas pure boost kyrie 4 puma rihanna creepers velvet nike zoom vaporfly elite kyrie 2 michael jordan shoes adidas zx flux kevin durant shoes vans sk8 hi
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20.11.2017 23:28
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