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«Исламское государство» может появиться в Сибири

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Александру III принадлежит известный афоризм: «У России есть только два союзника — армия и флот». Однако в нашем сложном мире сражаться в одиночку против всех весьма опрометчиво

Опасность простых решений для России: в плену у союзников

Александру III принадлежит известный афоризм: «У России есть только два союзника — армия и флот». Однако в нашем сложном мире сражаться в одиночку против всех весьма опрометчиво. Совершенно иной смысл слова императора приобретают, если дополнить их мыслью лорда Палмерстона: «У нас нет ни вечных союзников, ни постоянных врагов, но постоянны и вечны наши интересы, и защищать их — наш долг». Сегодня этот принцип подходит и для нашего Отечества. Особенно когда большая часть государств планеты следуют еще одному известному высказыванию англосакса Палмерстона: «Как тяжело жить, когда с Россией никто не воюет».

Каждый день российские СМИ рассказывают об успехах иракских сил в Тикрите — родном городе С. Хусейна, который они очищают от подразделений ИГИЛ. Как правило, большая часть сообщений выдержана в духе победных реляций. Такая подача вполне понятна. Из 30 тыс. человек, занятых в войсковой операции, на созданную американцами иракскую армию приходится максимум 8-10 тыс. Остальные — это в основном шиитская милиция, созданная, натренированная, вооруженная и возглавляемая офицерами Корпуса стражей Исламской революции — «Аль-Кудс». Получается нетривиальный микст, состоящий из подразделений, за которыми стоят ожесточенные на сегодняшний день противники — иранцы и американцы. К тому же американцы осуществляют разведывательную и огневую воздушную поддержку штурмующих Тикрит сил иракской армии и шиитской милиции — Басидж.

Логика большинства российских СМИ и аналитиков понятна: Иран — союзник Сирии, а Сирия — союзник России, соответственно, там, где участвуют иранцы, мы должны поддерживать именно их сторону. Однако линейная логика плохо подходит для принятия сложных решений в нынешнем динамичном, турбулентном мире. Пора России руководствоваться не делением на «своих и чужих» или «плохих и хороших», а исходить из того, насколько опасна та или иная сила, или насколько можно ее использовать в собственных интересах. А вот здесь с ИГИЛ, их противниками, союзниками и т.п. все не так просто, как это может показаться на первый взгляд.

Начнем с Вашингтона. С прошлой недели в его коридорах власти циркулирует необычный, никем не подписанный документ — «Белые Бумаги. „Исламское государство“ в Сибири. Фантастика или вероятность» (White Paper. Islamic State in Siberia. Fiction or Probability). По стилю документа можно предположить, что к нему имеет отношение исследовательская структура, связанная с американским разведывательным сообществом, — The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), и, возможно, эксперты ключевого «думающего танка» демократов Brookings Institution. В резюме документа содержится три главных вывода. Первый — на севере России — в Ямало-Ненецком, Ханты-Мансийском автономном округах, и прежде всего в Новом Уренгое, Ноябрьске, Нижневартовске, в некоторых городах Якутии, постепенно складывается критическая масса для формирования активных действующих ячеек ИГИЛ.

Потенциальными рекрутами для ИГИЛ в этих регионах является не только молодежь из южных, преимущественно мусульманских районов РФ, массово прибывающая в богатые нефтегазовые и золотодобывающие регионы, но и местное молодое русскоязычное население. Второй — по организационным, технологическим, финансовым, логистическим и медийным возможностям эти регионы благоприятны для использования хорошо отработанных технологий, присущих именно ИГИЛ. Его уже давно не смущают географические расстояния. Важна лишь перспективность региона и наличие в нем необходимого потенциала.
Третий вывод доклада состоит в том, что, если ИГИЛ столкнется с серьезными препятствиями в экспансии на Ближнем и Среднем Востоке, оно с высокой степенью вероятности начнет искать новые, удаленные и труднодоступные для своих врагов регионы, включая постсоветские среднеазиатские страны и российский северо-восток. В Белых Бумагах не содержится каких-либо прямых рекомендаций, но из логики документа следует: ИГИЛ отправится в Сибирь, если его подтолкнуть к подобным действиям. Сделать это проще всего, если уже сегодня постараться вовлечь Россию в прямое финансово-организационное или даже военное противостояние с ИГИЛ, прежде всего, на Ближнем Востоке.

Проанализируем события последних дней, связанные с ИГИЛ, которым почти не уделялось внимания российскими СМИ. Крупнейшая террористическая группировка южного полушария — «Боко Харам» (БХ) в Нигерии — устами своего лидера Абу Бакр Шекау присягнула на верность халифу ИГИЛ Абу Бакр аль Багдади. БХ насчитывает примерно 30 тыс. боевиков, террористов и обеспечивающего их персонала. ИГИЛ имеет определенную поддержку в нигерийской армии и среди среднего руководящего и технического персонала нефтяных компаний. Этот персонал в основном составляют выходцы из стран Ближнего Востока. БХ имеет устойчивые и эффективные связи с нигерийскими преступными синдикатами, которые занимают серьезные позиции не только в Африке, но и в мире, в сферах незаконных финансовых операций, работорговле, поставок человеческих имплантатов и т.п. БХ удалось не только заметно затруднить логистику нефти из Нигерии, нападая на танкеры и т.п., но и в немалой степени парализовать морские пассажирские и грузовые перевозки.
Значение присоединения БХ к ИГИЛ далеко выходит за пределы Африки. В феврале по поводу условий присоединения проходили переговоры между руководителями ИГИЛ и БХ. По сведениям всегда хорошо осведомленного ресурса DEBKAFile, тесно связанного с МОССАД и Армией обороны Израиля, в переговорах участвовали «Аль-Каида Аравийского полуострова» (AQAP) и «Аль-Каида Исламского Магриба» (AQIM). Участие AQAP и AQIM было обусловлено тем, что именно они с согласия центрального руководства «Аль-Каиды» ранее осуществляли логистическую, финансовую и военную поддержку БХ. По итогам трехсторонних переговоров AQAP и AQIM не только дали согласие на переход контроля над БХ к ИГИЛ, но и фактически согласились стать его союзниками, пойдя ради этого на прямую конфронтацию с центральным руководством «Аль-Каиды».

В заключение приступим к главной теме, имеющей прямое отношение к России. До последнего времени эксперты строили различного рода предположения, что именно стало главным аргументом для перехода AQAP и AQIM в союзников, а в будущем, возможно, и в подданных ИГИЛ. Документированной версии, объясняющей этот крутой поворот, выдвинуто так и не было. В минувшую пятницу крупные нефтяные инвесторы и спекулянты получили еженедельную рассылку, посвященную ситуации в Йемене, от Дана Дикера. В его докладе от 13 марта подчеркивается, что AQAP полностью разочаровалась в саудовцах, катарцах и центральном руководстве «Аль-Каиды», поскольку они не смогли ей оказать помощь в борьбе с шиитским движением Хути, поддерживаемым Ираном.

Не так давно Хути овладели столицей и значительной частью северных районов страны. Сегодня они готовятся к наступлению на основную нефтеносную провинцию Йемена — Мариб. Пока она находится под контролем AQAP. В докладе указывается, что движение Хути в настоящее время напрямую и при посредстве иранцев пытается войти в контакт с российскими нефтяными компаниями с тем, чтобы уговорить их взять на себя восстановление, а в последующем эксплуатацию нефтяных месторождений в Марибе. Понятно, Хути и поддерживающие их силы действуют в собственных интересах. Им нужны независимые нефтедобытчики и экспортеры из стран, не подпадающих под иранское эмбарго.

Однако давно документально установлено, что враги нашей страны в совершенстве овладели методами рефлексивного управления. Они научились даже противников превращать в инструменты достижения собственных целей. Одна из наиболее важных текущих и перспективных их целей — втянуть Россию в кровопролитный долговременный и тяжелый конфликт на Аравийском полуострове или другом субрегионе Ближнего и Среднего Востока и в прямую конфронтацию с ИГИЛ. Соответственно, Москве надо очень выверенно действовать в этом регионе, не поддаваясь на соблазны простых, но опасных шагов.


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